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Between Two Worlds: The Unfolding China-Taiwan Conflict
Written By: Hannah Wan
Researched By: Maris Cheng
Published By: Meredith Yuen
Published: 22nd September 2025
Pexels.com, City with Futuristic Skyscrapers at Nighttime, (published July 22nd 2022), Retrieved September 21 2025
In a region marked by complex geopolitical challenges, Taiwan consistently navigates daily pressures amid China’s growing influence, which has significant implications for the balance of power in Asia.
guanxi.com, What are the Cultural Differences between China and Taiwan (Uploaded October 7, 2020). Retrieved 12 September 2025.
What is this conflict?
The China-Taiwan conflict is one of the world’s most sensitive and dangerous geopolitical flashpoints. The main reason for the China-Taiwan conflict is a sovereignty dispute. The conflict traces back to the Chinese Civil War, which happened between 1920s-1949, between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)and the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT). When the CCP won in 1949, the KMT moved to Taiwan and continued their assertion of being the main government of China, while the Communist Party established a separate government on the mainland. China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland to fulfil national unity and the “Chinese dream” of national rejuvenation. Taiwan, a self-governing democratic entity, resists unification under the People’s Republic of China, wishing to maintain its political system, freedom, and de facto independence.
The Basic History Behind it:
Taiwan’s early history involved indigenous peoples and was influenced by Chinese dynasties (Song, Yuan, Ming, Qing) as well as Dutch and Spanish colonial powers in the 17th century. In 1683, the Qing dynasty took control and incorporated Taiwan as its province . Taiwan remained as a part of Qing China until 1895. Following the First Sino-Japanese War, the Treaty of Shimonoseki (1895) ceded Taiwan to Japan, making it a Japanese colony until the end of World War II in 1945. After Japan’s surrender in 1945, the Republic of China took over Taiwan. Meanwhile, the Chinese Civil War resumed between the Communist Party of China and the Nationalist Kuomintang. In 1949, the Communists won control of mainland China, founding the People’s Republic of China (PRC), while the defeated Republic Of China government retreated to Taiwan.
Relations between China and Taiwan have been complex and often tense since the Chinese Civil War split in 1949. In 1971, the United Nations recognized the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the sole representative of China, excluding Taiwan from most international organizations. The U.S. followed in 1979 by formally recognizing the PRC but maintained unofficial support for Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act. During the 1980s and 1990s, economic ties strengthened as travel and trade grew, marking a period of détente—an easing of tensions—between the two sides. A significant breakthrough occurred in 2015 when leaders from both sides met for the first time since 1949, opening possibilities for dialogue despite ongoing political differences. However, Taiwan’s differing views on sovereignty and China’s insistence on reunification continue to drive a fragile and volatile relationship.
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Who are the Key Players?
There are two main actors in China: the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Led by President Xi Jinping, the CCP drives China’s claim over Taiwan and its goal of reunification, employing a range of strategies including military force, diplomatic engagement, media influence, and other forms of soft power. The PLA, especially its rocket force, navy, and air force, regularly conducts exercises and maintains readiness to act over Taiwan if directed. The Chinese government also follows a “gray zone” strategy—gradual, non-war measures such as military pressure, economic coercion, diplomatic efforts, and information campaigns—to assert control while avoiding immediate armed conflict.
There are also two separate groups in Taiwan: Taiwan’s government under President Lai Ching-te and the Democratic Progressive Party. Taiwan operates as a self-governing democracy, resistant to unification under China. President Lai emphasizes sovereignty and increased defense capabilities while expressing willingness to engage in dialogue without preconditions. The ruling party in Taiwan tends to have a more pro-independence stance, supporting military modernization and resistance to China’s pressure. Taiwan has been strengthening its defenses and responding to China’s military maneuvers with regular exercises and security measures to counter espionage and disinformation campaigns.
A key external actor that supports Taiwan’s defense under the Taiwan Relations Act and aims to deter Chinese military aggression is the United States. The U.S. maintains a stance of strategic ambiguity but provides arms and diplomatic support, sees Taiwan’s security as crucial to regional stability, and continues military presence in the Indo-Pacific region. U.S.-Taiwan relations impact the broader U.S.-China strategic rivalry, with careful balancing to avoid outright conflict. Countries such as the Philippines increasingly see their security linked to Taiwan’s situation, engaging in joint patrols and military cooperation amid rising Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.
scmp.com, Taiwan tensions to grow in 2025, but risk of war low as Taipei divisions distract: report (Uploaded 31 Dec 2024), Retrieved 17 September 2025
What is Each Country Fighting For?
China’s concept of "national rejuvenation" is a central political vision aimed at restoring China’s historical stature as a prosperous, powerful, and influential nation. Within this vision, the “reunification” of Taiwan with the mainland is viewed as an essential step toward realizing the broader goal of national rejuvenation. Chinese leadership, especially under Xi Jinping, frames reunification as both a historic mission and a matter of national pride and identity. It is tied to enhancing China’s regional dominance and political legitimacy domestically and internationally. Beijing pursues this goal through a comprehensive strategy combining diplomatic efforts, economic leverage, military pressure, and cyber operations. While emphasizing the preference for peaceful reunification under the principle of “one country, two systems,” China has not ruled out the use of force if deemed necessary to achieve this objective, aiming to complete its vision of rejuvenation by around the country’s centenary year in 2049. This strategy aligns reunification with China’s broader ambition to solidify its place as a leading global power and to resolve what the Communist Party considers a sovereign territorial issue.
Taiwan fights to maintain its self-governance, democracy, and de facto independence, grounded in what many consider its declarative legitimacy as a self-governing entity with a permanent population, territory, and government. Although Taiwan has not formally declared independence—which Beijing opposes vigorously—it strongly resists any Chinese control or forced unification. Taiwan is strengthening its defense capabilities asymmetrically, reducing economic dependence on China, expanding diplomatic ties with other countries, and fostering societal resilience against Chinese pressure and influence operations. The mainstream preference in Taiwan is to maintain the status quo of de facto independence without provoking outright conflict, though strong support exists for deterrence and defense investments.
Who is Most Affected By This?
Taiwan’s population of 23 million would experience significant disruption in the event of a military conflict, including the risk of displacement and interruption to essential services. Civil defense measures, such as drills, are already part of daily life to increase preparedness. Chinese civilians near potential conflict zones and military personnel on both sides could face casualties and economic consequences. Chinese leadership is aware that any military action could create strong resistance and complicate governance post-conflict.
The economic impact of a conflict would extend well beyond the immediate region due to Taiwan’s central role in global semiconductor production and critical shipping lanes. Disruptions could lead to increased energy prices, supply chain challenges, and market volatility affecting many countries.
In a scenario of political unification—whether through peaceful agreement or other means—challenges surrounding integration of differing political systems, identities, and societal values would arise. Such a process might encounter resistance and require long-term reconciliation.
The diaspora and international community would also feel effects from changes in the region’s stability, including potential migration, shifting alliances, and economic fluctuations. Overall, these complexities underline why the cross-strait relationship is a key global concern involving multiple human, political, and economic dimensions.
Possible Outcomes:
A low-intensity result would be that China could attempt to destabilize Taiwan internally by engineering unrest and installing a puppet regime without open warfare. This would likely face strong resistance from Taiwan, international condemnation, and possible economic sanctions against China. Taiwan would call on allies for support, hardening resolve rather than submission.
The next level of escalation involves economic and logistical pressure through strategies known as “quarantine” or gray-zone tactics. These gray-zone tactics involve actions by China that fall short of outright warfare but still apply significant pressure on Taiwan. For example, China frequently sends naval and air patrols near Taiwan and uses maritime law enforcement agencies to assert its claims. In addition, China engages in cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and sabotage efforts like cutting undersea communication cables to weaken Taiwan’s position. Quarantine tactics specifically focus on disrupting Taiwan’s trade by imposing restrictions on imports and exports without declaring war. By slowing or blocking goods, China aims to destabilize Taiwan’s economy and international relationships gradually. These combined measures create ongoing tension and economic uncertainty in the region, often prompting coordinated diplomatic and security responses from Taiwan’s partners and neighboring countries to prevent further escalation.
The most dangerous outcome is an invasion leading to a full-scale war that involves missile strikes, amphibious assaults, and urban warfare. Massive civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction in Taiwan would occur. Regional shipping, stock markets and economies would collapse, causing a global economic crisis. China would face severe sanctions, a potential military confrontation with the U.S. and its allies, and internal instability.
Recent Advancements Have Enabled
Taiwan to conduct its largest annual military drill, the 2025 Han Kuang Exercise, which has been extended to 10 days and now includes urban defense scenarios, such as simulated PLA commando raids and fifth-column attacks, to reflect modern multi-domain warfare tactics. This shows Taiwan’s shift to a multilevel defense strategy, emphasizing its resilience against a PLA first strike. New weapons demonstrated include U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems that are capable of striking targets deep into mainland China, integrated with Taiwan’s indigenous missile platforms. Taiwan is also intensifying civil defense drills under the “Urban Resilience Exercise” concept to prepare civilians alongside military forces for potential conflict. Taiwan also recently increased patrols to protect undersea internet cables from sabotage attempts, a new target in China’s “gray-zone” warfare tactics.
China continues a “gray zone” strategy, avoiding outright invasion but gradually asserting control over Taiwan’s surrounding water with frequent PLA aerial and naval incursions, and military exercises showcasing advanced military technology, including hypersonic missiles and AI-powered drones. China maintains diplomatic signaling aimed at preserving the status quo while demonstrating military capability, including grand military parades and increased pressure on Taiwan’s allies. Chinese activities also extend to coercive actions in the South China Sea, escalating tensions with regional countries like the Philippines.
Taiwan has increased cooperation with the Philippines and the U.S., conducting joint coast guard patrols and engaging in diplomatic discussions. These efforts have grown partly in response to rising Chinese pressure in disputed waters, reflecting Taiwan’s aim to strengthen regional partnerships and security ties. U.S. involvement continues through arms sales to Taiwan, a significant military presence in the Indo-Pacific, and diplomatic support, all carefully calibrated to deter conflict escalation and promote regional stability.
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