The Conservative Party has Capitulated — What’s Led to their Demise?

Despite having been in government up until 2024, the Conservative Party is languishing in the polls, having recently received their lowest ever vote share in a by-election and polling as the 3rd largest party in Britain’s two-party-dominated system. What’s gone wrong for them?

Who are the Conservatives?

The Conservative Party is widely considered to have been founded in 1834 from the Tory Party (hence their nickname the “Tories”). As the oldest political party in the UK, the Conservatives have been one of the two dominant parties in British politics for the last 3 centuries. They have historically been protectionist, and have advocated for individual responsibility and Eurosceptic policies. As an establishment party, their voters have been found to be older and more affluent, compared to that of other parties.

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The Conservatives’ Fall from Grace

When the Tories were elected to government in 2010 under the leadership of David Cameron, their victory came off the back of Labour’s 13-year rule as the majority party, having only barely managed to weather the financial crisis of 2008 amidst bouts of party infighting and controversy. However, the next 14 years of Conservative leadership would be marred by various issues and controversies too, the most major of which will be outlined below: 

Brexit (2016-2021)

The most significant legacy of the 14-year Conservative government by far is undoubtedly Brexit, the UK’s decision to leave the European Union after more than 40 years, which was made as a direct result of a referendum held in June 2016 on the issue. With 51.9% of the electorate voting “Leave”, the British electorate voted to leave the EU by an incredibly slim majority, which has had major knock-on effects on Britain as a whole, even up until now. 

For a long time, Britons had been skeptical of the powers that the European Union (EU) held over the UK, choosing to opt out of both the Eurozone and the Schengen area, which are part of the key pillars promoting unity within the EU as a whole. With immigration having long been a key issue for the British electorate, rising levels of immigration in the 2000s led to the rise of right-wing Eurosceptic parties, most notably the UKIP (UK Independence Party), spearheaded by Nigel Farage. Although such parties were not actively against Britain’s EU membership, they believed leaving the EU would give the UK increased control over its own borders and immigration. This would in turn relieve many of the UK’s other problems, such as unemployment, high crime rates, and housing shortages. By linking such daily issues faced by the British voter to greater concerns about British sovereignty, Eurosceptic parties and media played a large role in drumming up support for the “Leave” vote. Facing a rise in such sentiment, then-leader of the Conservatives David Cameron promised a referendum on Britain's EU membership if he was elected. 

In response to the referendum result, Prime Minister Cameron resigned, triggering the first of many leadership elections under the Conservatives’ time in government. Theresa May would become the new Prime Minister, and was thus responsible for negotiating the terms of the agreement between the EU and Britain for their exit from the Union. However, this negotiation process itself would be plagued by various issues. 

The Conservatives’ lack of a majority in parliament meant that the passing of policies by the government would require support from the DUP (the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland), who had entered a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Conservatives. However, the DUP were staunchly opposed to many of May’s ideas for the Brexit deal. For example, the Irish backstop, a policy designed by the Conservatives to regulate the border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK), and Ireland (which is part of the EU), was heavily opposed by the DUP. 

Another point of contention between the Conservative government and factions within the Conservative party, and perhaps the most major one, was whether Britain would have a hard or soft approach towards a Brexit deal. Though Prime Minister May was heavily in favour of a softer Brexit deal – where the UK would retain its membership within the European Single Market alongside a certain extent of freedom of movement within the European Economic Area – many more right-wing factions within the Conservatives were strongly opposed to this approach. Rebellions within the party meant that all of Prime Minister May’s Brexit proposals would fail to pass in the British Parliament, and that paired with repeated votes of no-confidence in May’s premiership would lead to her resignation in June of 2019, without a finalised deal in place. A Brexit deal would finally be completed under the premiership of Boris Johnson, who made various revisions to May’s original deals, allowing the UK to leave the EU once and for all on January 31, 2020.

The result of the referendum created global shockwaves, the effects of which can still be felt today. Up until Brexit, Britain was the EU’s second-largest economy behind Germany, and its capital London was a global financial centre. Additionally, the EU was Britain’s largest trading partner, and also a significant source of investment for the country, thus its exit from the Union could arguably be viewed as a lose-lose situation for both sides from an economic perspective, as previous trade agreements facilitating free trade and other economic activities between EU member states would no longer apply to Britain upon their exit. To make matters worse, though many Eurosceptic parties claimed that Brexit would alleviate immigration rates in Britain, such rates have since soared, and as of 2026, net migration in Britain is above that of pre-Brexit levels. Overall, it is widely agreed that Brexit was a failure for both Britain and the EU in practically every aspect, weakening the Conservatives’ credibility in government. 

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Partygate and Truss’s 49-day Premiership (2022-2023)

Despite Johnson’s premiership having been off to a good start, the government’s honeymoon was short-lived, as they were immediately faced with the COVID-19 pandemic. Among its fellow European nations, the UK was the last to implement lockdowns and a variety of other containment policies, which led to Britain being heavily affected by the virus in the form of overcrowded hospitals and high-death tolls, and the government being criticised by the public for their “too little, too late” response to the pandemic. However, things would take a turn for the worse when reports emerged of Prime Minister Johnson hosting gatherings at 10 Downing Street, directly violating the social distancing and lockdown guidelines his very own government had previously put in place. As Johnson and various government members repeatedly failed to take accountability for his government’s actions, he would become the first Prime Minister in British political history to be sanctioned for breaking the law while in office, having to pay a series of fines to the police for breaking such rules. This Partygate scandal would lead to mass resignations by members of the Conservative government, and would culminate in Prime Minister Johnson’s resignation, having greatly eroded public trust and support in both him and his party. 

The most infamous of all the controversies of the Conservative government would certainly be Liz Truss’s 49-day premiership, where newly selected Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned only after 49 days in office, after crashing the value of the British pound and witnessing approval ratings drop to record lows during her short tenure. As the newly-installed Prime Minister, her first order of business was to propose the mini-budget for the nation with the help of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, which included significant tax cuts, abolishing the base rate for income tax, stamp duty, corporation tax, amongst other cuts, all to be funded by increased borrowing. 

This mini-budget proved to be highly controversial, and was received extremely poorly by both the public and MPs, with senior Conservative MPs openly opposing the mini-budget due to many deeming that the short-term debt incurred from borrowing would be nowhere near sufficient to offset the long-term loss of tax revenue. This led to a crash in the British economy — as the value of the pound would drop sharply against the US dollar — in response to which the Bank of England had to raise interest rates and increase mortgage payments. Kwarteng would later be fired and replaced by Jeremy Hunt; but, the damage had been done – with the economy in shambles and Truss’s approval ratings reaching a record low of 9% for a Prime Minister, Truss would resign only 49 days into her premiership, marking a record-short term for a British Prime Minister. 

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Rwanda Asylum Scheme (2023-2024)

As previously mentioned, one of the major driving forces apart from economic reasons behind the British public’s decision to leave the European Union was to reduce immigration, more specifically, illegal immigration. However, post-Brexit numbers of illegal immigration soared to sky-high levels, overwhelming Britain’s already overcrowded asylum system and leading to further public discontent. To solve this issue, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak proposed the Rwanda scheme, where asylum seekers would be deported to Rwanda in cooperation with the Rwandan government for processing and relocation, with all asylum seekers prohibited from returning to the UK after their deportation. 

Yet despite spending large amounts of money on this scheme, no flights to Rwanda under this scheme ever took place; the scheme was further thwarted by both the UK’s Supreme Court and the European Court of Human Rights, both of which ruled the scheme unlawful and inhumane, effectively putting an end to this idea. Although attempts to override both courts’ decisions were made by the Conservative Party, the subsequent election of the Labour Party in the 2024 general election meant that the plan would be scrapped entirely. This meant that the Conservatives had essentially splashed much-needed cash on an unworkable scheme in a time where British households are suffering from an affordability crisis, further reducing the public’s already-low satisfaction with the Conservative government. 

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What does this Mean for the Conservatives?

After the long series of unpopular decisions and controversial policies implemented by the previous Conservative leadership paired with the uncontrolled infighting within the party, public support for the party had dwindled far behind the Labour Party at the time of the 2024 general election. It was therefore unsurprising that the Tories would lose their grip on power in the 2024 general election, with Prime Minister at the time Rishi Sunak conceding defeat to incoming Prime Minister Keir Starmer before the election results were officially called. 

Though one may not have expected the Conservatives to bounce back from their election defeat, it would have been unthinkable for a party with such significance in British political history to have fallen to such lows. Yet just by looking back on the Conservatives’ days in office, it is understandable as to why the party is so utterly despised by the British electorate – 14 years of chaos and failure at the highest level of British politics would surely have to result in some sort of consequence for all those who enabled such shortcomings. 

The party’s unpopularity could also have to do with Rishi Sunak’s successor, Kemi Badenoch, who is viewed by many within the party to be too weak a figure to unite the many factions within the Conservatives. Most importantly however, many have criticised Badenoch’s distaste for media, and thus her inability to command sustained attention from the media and the public. This stands in stark contrast to her party’s direct rivals Reform UK, who is usurping the Conservatives place as the country’s second biggest party through their leader Nigel Farage’s aggressive promotion of the party’s populist platform. Additionally, Badenoch’s mixed messages about the Conservatives’ policy platform (as well as what differentiates them from Reform UK) has alienated more right-wing voters, many of which have thrown their support behind Farage’s movement. This alienation even extends to MPs, as many notable Conservative MPs, such as Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick —- who ran alongside Badenoch in the 2024 Conservative leadership election —- have defected to Reform UK. 

Given the enormity of the task that is to unite and lead the Conservatives during such dire times, alongside the unprecedented rise of Reform UK in what has previously always been a 2 party system, anyone would struggle to meet the task’s demands. However, there is a silver lining for the Conservatives. Much of Reform UK’s surge in polling since the 2024 general election (which most agree to have been driven by Tory defectors) has slowed, and with there being around 3 years before a next general election must be called, there is plenty of time for the Conservatives to get back on track and win back the voters they previously lost to other parties. 

For now though, while the rest of the world sits and watches, the Conservatives must work to repair and possibly even rebrand its image, to ensure that the party has a fighting chance in future elections to come.

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Glossary: 

Protectionist: The economic policy of restricting imports from other countries through methods such as tariffs on imported goods, import quotas, and a variety of other government regulations

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Eurosceptic: A political position involving criticism of the European Union (EU) and European integration

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Eurozone: A currency union of 21 member states of the European Union (EU) that have adopted the euro (€) as their currency

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Schengen area: A system of open borders that encompasses 29 European countries that have officially abolished border controls at their common borders

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Confidence and supply agreement: A parliamentary arrangement where a minority government secures support from other parties or independents on confidence votes and budget (supply) matters, without forming a full coalition

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Sources: 

Cunliffe, R. (2025, March 19). What went wrong for Kemi Badenoch? New Statesman. https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2025/03/what-went-wrong-for-kemi-badenoch 

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Hagopian, A. (2026, March 29). Tories face existential challenge from Reform - but electoral pact may not be answer. Sky News; Sky. https://news.sky.com/story/tories-face-existential-challenge-from-reform-but-electoral-pact-may-not-be-answer-13521818 

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Herbert, C. (2025, May 13). Net migration has rocketed since Brexit was completed. The London Economic. https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/net-migration-has-rocketed-since-brexit-393061/ 

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Singh, W. (2025). Things Fall Apart: Analyzing 14 Years of Conservative Rule in Things Fall Apart: Analyzing 14 Years of Conservative Rule in Britain . Bates College Journal of Political Studies, 1(Spring 2025). https://scarab.bates.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1005&context=bjps 

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Voting intention. (2026). Yougov.com. https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention?period=3m 

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Wikipedia Contributors. (2026, March 30). Conservative Party (UK). Wikipedia; Wikimedia Foundation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)#